MLB Postseason picks
// October 7th, 2009 // Sports
Will Cliff Lee pitch Philly back into the World Series?
After one of the best games I’ve seen in a very long time, the Minnesota Twins are in to the playoffs, and our playoff field is set. Philadelphia hosts Colorado, Los Angeles hosts St. Louis, New York hosts Minnesota and the Los Angeles Angels of “I wish they had just kept it” Anaheim host Boston. I’ve given previews of each first round series below, plus my initial picks for the MLB playoffs. I’ve done moderately well in the past, picking the correct winners in both 2006 (St. Louis) and 2007 (Boston) before backsliding a little last year.
Here were my preseason playoff picks that I posted elsewhere before starting my own blog:
AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
AL West: L.A. Angels
AL Wild Card: New York Yankees
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: L.A. Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Florida Marlins
It’s obvious now that I was way off about my beloved Chicago Cubs. They were probably the biggest disappointment of the 2009 MLB season. Florida turned some heads like I thought they would but fell out of Wild Card contention late in September. I missed badly on the St. Louis Cardinals. I can’t believe how much pitching coach Dave Duncan continues to get out of retreads like closer Ryan Franklin. He’s been the best pitching game in the game since Leo Mazzone left Atlanta to head to Baltimore. I did much better in the American League, getting every team right but flip-flopping the Yankees and Red Sox. It’s amazing that Minnesota had to play a 163rd game for the second straight year, but oh what a game it was. Despite the Cubs’ absence, I’m excited about the postseason!
On to the picks…
Phillies over Rockies
I’m extremely fascinated by the amazing run the Colorado Rockies have been on since Jim Tracy took over the team, but the Phillies are the champs until someone beats them. Not only that, the Phillies have gotten better since last year, adding a Cy Young arm in Cliff Lee and a potential postseason closer in Pedro Martinez. Either way, their pitching depth should help sure up the shakiest bullpen in the majors. Brad Lidge is 0-8 this year with 11 blown saves… the most by any pitcher in three years. But if the Phillies can bookend their rotation with Martinez and/or Brett Myers, they could turn a regular season weakness into a postseason strength. The Rockies are without 16-game winner Jorge De La Rosa. They have four good pitchers they can trot out, but no great pitchers. Philadelphia has two great pitchers, and that will be the difference. Phillies in 3 games.
Cardinals over Dodgers
In May, some columnists practically gave the 2009 World Series to the Los Angeles Dodgers when they jumped out to a huge lead in the NL West. (Many of those same columnists also wrote off the New York Yankees.) With star cleanup hitter and estrogen-injecting right field Manny Ramirez slumping in the second half, the Dodgers look very beatable. No Dodger fan will soon forget how Ramirez carried the team past the Cubs last season in the first round of the playoffs, and they will need a similar performance from him against the Cardinals. St. Louis comes in slumping a bit as well, losing 7 of its last 9, but the Cards have two aces up their sleeves — Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. All those two did this year was go a combined 36-12, finishing as the top two pitchers in the National League in wins. The Dodgers had the best team ERA in the National League this year and Clayton Kershaw is a rising superstar, but the boys in blue don’t have a true ace, and nowhere is that more noticeable than the postseason. Plus, you can never discount the tremendous impact Albert Pujols has on this Cardinal team. Brad Lidge is already scared to death and the Phillies aren’t even playing the Cardinals… yet. Cardinals in 5 games.
Yankees over Twins
The Minnesota Twins might be the hottest team in baseball, winners of 17 of their past 21, but the hottest team in baseball hasn’t had to play the New York Yankees. The baseball saying goes that momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher, and that pitcher happens to be Yankee ace CC Sabathia. The Twins haven’t won at the new Yankee Stadium ever and haven’t beaten the Yankees on the road in more than two years. While the Twins’ game against the Detroit Tigers Tuesday night was thrilling and won’t be forgotten in the Twin cities anytime soon, the cost of a 163rd game — especially one as taxing as that 12-inning affair — could make this an easy sweep for New York. It wore out the Twins’ bullpen, and Minnesota had to use its two best pitchers just to make the playoffs. That means rookie Brian Duensing will get the ball for Minnesota in Game 1. That doesn’t fill me with confidence considering the kid has to face Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira. The Twins are exciting to watch and I’m glad the cursed Metrodome gets one last hurrah, but… Yankees in 3 games.
Red Sox over Angels
I want to pick the Los Angeles Angels here. I really do. But I can’t. Boston has completely owned the Angels in the postseason this decade. Since 2003, the teams have played each other three times in October. Boston won each of those series; in fact, the Angels have managed just one win against the Red Sox in 10 games. In Twitterland, that’s referred to as #epicfail. The Angels bolstered their starting staff with the acquisition of Scott Kazmir, but the Angels aren’t as good defensively this season as they’ve been in years past. It will be curious to see how well Boston plays during this series. It could give us some indication of what we can expect when they play the Yankees. Again, I’d like to pick the Angels here but I simply can’t. I’ve been burned before picking the Angels against the Red Sox, and insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. I expect history to repeat itself. Red Sox in 4 games.
Here’s how I see the rest of the playoffs shaking out. I’ll preview those games when we get to them:
Cardinals over Phillies in 6 games
Yankees over Red Sox in 5 games
Yankees over Cardinals in 4 games to win the World Series.
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